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Opinion: Making Sense Of Paytm's Debacle Debut

India’s biggest-ever IPO has fallen flat on its face on Day 1. Paytm offered shares at Rs 2,150, listed at Rs 1,950 and closed at its day low of Rs 1,560. Which means anybody who hoped to money in on itemizing day is down greater than 27% on their investments. This has come in the midst of India’s IPO fever and after Zomato gave 66% returns on debut and Nykaa virtually doubled on the finish of its first day.

Paytm’s IPO valued the corporate at roughly $20 billion, it closed on itemizing day at a valuation of about $14 billion. That’s decrease than what it was value in 2019, when it raised one billion {dollars}. And if the brokerage agency Macquarie has acquired it proper, then the Paytm inventory is overvalued even now. Macquarie says Paytm is not worth more than Rs 1,200 as a result of it does nothing that different huge gamers do not already do, and that the corporate’s core enterprise of wallets has turn out to be redundant with the unfold of UPI. Macquarie calls Paytm a “money guzzler” which has, in funding losses, burnt 70% of the cash it has raised since its launch.

None of that is new. The valuation guru Aswath Damodaran, adopted by many critical traders the world over, had put out his personal valuation of Paytm six weeks in the past, the place he known as the corporate “India’s premier cash burning machine“. Damodaran mentioned Paytm’s efficiency leads “to a cynical conclusion that the corporate is including new companies and giving them away for nothing (or near it) to pad its consumer/transaction numbers. Second, it is a firm that appears to run on hyperbolic forecasts from its founders and prime administration, that aren’t simply persistently greater than what the corporate ship, however typically by an element of three or 4.”

But – and this is the fascinating half – Damodaran, who tends to be a cautious investor, discovered a number of causes to present Paytm an preliminary valuation of Rs 1.46 lakh crore or round $20 bn. That is broadly the identical as Paytm’s IPO valuation. Examine that to Damodaran’s evaluation of the opposite huge ‘start-up’ IPO, Zomato. Damodaran valued Zomato at about Rs 41 per share (primarily based on an “upbeat story”) versus its IPO provide worth of Rs 76 and its itemizing worth of Rs 116.

Actually, as Damodaran had recognized, Zomato has a number of issues of its personal – excessive prices of buyer acquisition and advertising and marketing, backlash from distributors and supply companions, restricted proprietary knowledge that is restricted to meals preferences of consumers, a nimble and aggressive competitor like Swiggy and the brand new entrant, Amazon Meals, which has the deep pockets to present huge reductions to cost out its rivals.

But, the market determined to reward Zomato, however punish Paytm. What explains this? Is it as a result of Paytm is essentially a Chinese language firm, with Alibaba, Ant Group and SAIF Companions proudly owning 54% of the shares earlier than the IPO? Are the markets nervous that Paytm will be unable to broaden into extra profitable companies, like operating a finance financial institution, due to its China connection? Or has there been a coordinated effort by huge market gamers to make sure Paytm comes a cropper on its debut? The timing of Macquarie’s report, giving their first ranking on the inventory, on the day of its itemizing, has raised many questions  that may by no means be answered satisfactorily.

Some would say that Paytm is unfortunate. Its enterprise mannequin isn’t any completely different than that of a number of different fintech and ecommerce companies. All of them are betting on future earnings, with just about no earnings to indicate within the current. They burn money to present large reductions to prospects within the hope that individuals will get so habituated to those platforms that they are going to stay energetic even when the costs are hiked. Betting on them is to imagine that India has an enormous untapped marketplace for e-commerce to penetrate deeper. It’s a narrative that’s primarily based on the concept that Indians have gotten hooked to their cell phones, and that they are going to reorient their spending priorities to purchase extra smartphones and knowledge.

The difficulty with this story is that it overestimates the Indian financial system’s capacity to make a majority of its residents richer. If one believes the estimates made by CMIE’s Mahesh Vyas, then nearly 23 million households in India earn more than five-lakh-rupees per year (lower than Rs 42,000 a month). That’s about 7% of all Indian households. That is broadly the scale of India’s shopping for courses, of people that can afford varied varieties of products and companies. If any firm desires to achieve past this ,it must give huge reductions –  precisely what India’s tech platforms have been doing to shore up their buyer base. However as soon as these reductions are withdrawn, the purchasers will drop off as properly as a result of they merely don’t have the cash to purchase issues at their actual market worth.

There are not any indicators in India’s financial system to recommend that this massively skewed and unequal sample of revenue distribution goes to alter anytime quickly. CMIE’s knowledge for October exhibits a pointy drop in employment in the midst of the pageant season with a lot of folks shifting into small entrepreneurship to make a living. Shopper sentiment in October continues to be depressed, together with amongst the affluent. And if there is a restoration proper on the prime of the consumption pyramid, it’s in all probability restricted to simply the highest 1-2% of Indians.

Which means most of India’s consumer-facing tech corporations have in all probability already reached the saturation level of their actual customer-base, of people that can afford to pay for his or her companies even when there have been no reductions. That is additionally one motive why these unicorns have immediately tapped the markets to lift funds, and listing themselves. They’ve made the a lot of the bull-run within the inventory markets which has continued since mid-March final yr, giving their authentic traders an opportunity to stroll away with a big revenue.

Regardless of this, there’s motive to imagine that Paytm’s debut debacle is an aberration. India’s financial system is getting more and more centralised within the fingers of some huge company homes. All of them know that the longer term is digital, and the one solution to keep within the sport is to spend money on it. This implies the Paytms of the world will proceed to be funded, even when they preserve burning money. These are platforms which have established themselves amongst hundreds of thousands of consumers, and their worth does not come from how a lot they will earn, however how a lot an even bigger participant will likely be keen to pay sooner or later to purchase them over.

(Aunindyo Chakravarty was Senior Managing Editor of BoardingFlight’s Hindi and Enterprise information channels.)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed inside this text are the non-public opinions of the creator. The info and opinions showing within the article don’t mirror the views of BoardingFlight and BoardingFlight doesn’t assume any accountability or legal responsibility for a similar.


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